November 04, 2012

Obama Court Nightmares; Ignore State Polls

In an op-ed at this weekend, CFJ president Curt Levey explains why “if Obama is re-elected, there’s a 75% chance of a return to the ultra-liberal Warren Court era.” He notes that
“Conservatives rightfully fear a second term for President Obama, but seem barely aware of the biggest threat posed by his re-election. … [I]t’s the third branch of government – the judiciary – that will likely give Obama the greatest opportunity to fulfill his dream of a radical makeover for America.”
Levey looks at the sort of decisions an Obama Supreme Court might issue, narrowing them down to the “Top Ten Worst Supreme Court Rulings if Obama is Re-Elected.”

Finally, with Election Day almost here, we remind you not to focus too much on the myriad state polls in the presidential race. They distract us from the fact that the winner of the popular vote will almost surely be the next president. As we said in this space four years ago,
“We can pretty much guarantee you that, unless the popular vote is essentially tied – that is, less than a 1% difference between the top two vote-getters – the winner of the popular vote will be the next president. We know that not because we have a crystal ball, but because it’s never been otherwise. … Twice, a candidate who trailed by a fraction of a percentage point in the popular vote – George W. Bush in 2000 and Grover Cleveland in 1888 – won an Electoral College victory. And in 1876, Democrat Samuel Tilden beat Republican Rutherford B. Hayes by 3% in the popular vote and led by 19 electoral votes, with 20 in dispute. In the Compromise of 1877, Hayes was given the 20 electoral votes and the presidency in return for an end to Reconstruction. But these anomalies prove the rule: win the popular vote by a meaningful amount and you’re the next president.”